THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN GLOBAL TRADE: AN ECONOMIC STUDY OF INDIAN INDUSTRIES AND EXPORTS
Abstract Show Abstract
The global trade landscape is undergoing profound structural transformations, driven by geopolitical realignments, the retooling of global value chains (GVCs), and the imperative of the green energy transition. For emerging economies like India, these shifts present both formidable challenges and unprecedented opportunities to enhance industrial capacity and expand export portfolios. This paper presents a comprehensive economic study on the impact of changing global trade dynamics on Indian industries and exports. By synthesizing advanced econometric techniques, multilayer network analysis, and machine learning forecasting, we propose a multi-modular analytical framework designed to evaluate India's export competitiveness. We hypothesize that traditional metrics relying on gross export volumes fail to capture the nuances of productive knowledge and domestic value-added integration. Instead, our methodology emphasizes economic complexity derived from value-added exports, the topological features of product-level trade networks, and the socioeconomic spillovers of export activities on local labor markets and environmental sustainability. Furthermore, we explore how temporal regulations and technology export controls influence domestic resource allocation and industrial upgrading. Through a hypothetical evaluation plan, we demonstrate how this framework can be deployed to predict export trajectories and formulate robust industrial policies. Ultimately, this study bridges the gap between macroeconomic trade shocks and micro-level industrial responses, offering actionable insights for policymakers to navigate the complexities of modern international trade, foster formal employment growth, and mitigate the environmental externalities associated with rapid export expansion.